Poisson Football Betting on Overs/Unders for Premier League: Week 2

Poisson Football Betting on Overs/Unders for Premier League: Week 2

We’ve been looking at how well the passo model you know where if you look at the distribution of goals scored in football they follow a Poisson distribution so all we need to know is the average number of goals that our team scores and concedes and then we can kind of predict we can say how often we expect a team to score one two three four or whatever goals so using that approach we can look at a match so in this case we’re looking at Watford Palace Arsenal West Ham Man City Swansea and then we can get the average number of goals that they score and concede from soccer stats the link is in the description below the video so then we just plug that in to our pawsome model we see how often we expect three or more goals or two or more girls Tector because so far I’d always be looking at pretty clean the results so you know whether it’s gonna be a home way in a drawer or away win this is the first look really to see ok the passo model also does predict you know how often we expect three or more goals etc but is it accurate? I mean how do we use it.

Here I’m just gonna pick I’m gonna decide that okay I’m gonna bet that we can have to feel more gold if the signal is 60% or higher on top of that I’m using the history sucker starts to look at the historical rate of over and unders, because okay we can we can get a prediction about Man City at home you know cuz they score lots of goals but the other way is to totally ignore we don’t have any model don’t don’t make it more complicated than you need to so if you just look at the overs and unders I can say click at home Arsenal at home have three or more goals 76 percent of the time so I typically want to back three or more goals if it’s Man City at home is Man City eighty-eight percent of the time so you know we could just use this and what the other game Iwas talking about was in Watford… Watford sixty five percent so all three games all three games seem to be high-scoring where we’d expect three or more it is slightly more complicated though because Crystal Palace have three or more goals like when Crystal Palace are away less than half the time so what’s the rules am I mean if the home team has to do of more goals quite regularly but the away team has a good defense and they tend to have low scoring game I don’t know maybe I’d have to come up with the rule we’d have to figure out what that means in this case since I haven’t come up with a proper analysis if anyone knows to be handy what I’m doing is oh because I keep man City are playing Swansea way and if you look at Swansea they only have when Swansea are way they have low scoring games they only have three or more goals thirty five percent of the time so even though Man City tend to score low circles they’re playing against a team that tend to basically I should’ve shop octopus or whatever you want to call it so they tend to be involved in low scoring games which means it’s not obvious that this is gonna be a high scoring game so that’s what we got from the overs and undress it’s on soccer strategy just click on over San Andres and then we can get the goal rates from this table so as we saw Arsenal at home they score 2 point 6 5 concede one point one – they’re playing West Ham who went there away score one point two four concede two point two four so getting those numbers we can plug them in to our pawsome model in our so for the Man City Swansea match we have two or more girls 88% of the time three or more 72 now from just the overs and unders data you know if I didn’t have the model you know I was saying oh man City score 80 half three or more goals 88 percent of the time but Swansea away half three or more girls only 35 percent of the time so if I was just using the overs and unders table I wouldn’t I’d avoid the bedding on three or more goals I mean it was unclear as to whether we should expect three or more we could see that he both had two or more goals very regularly but three or more if I just had the data, if I just had the overs and unders data I would have not bet on them I would have just bet on the two or more but using the poisson model it says no I know that Swansea have a good defense you know and they don’t tend to concede that many away goals but I think you’re gonna get fewer more very regularly so the porter model says bet on man city swansea to have three or more it also says to back arsenal West ham to have three or more eighty-seven percent of the time so that just leaves Watford Crystal Palace we have a difference so if you plug in the data for Watford Palace I can see that we expect two or more girls but it’s not clear about three or more so I back two or more goals but I’d stay away from three or more because it’s a coin toss I mean lucky nearly fifty percent so it’s it’s very much a coming to us it’s interesting because for Watford Palace we had a difference of opinion we didn’t really know whether to buy three or more goals or not Watford at home I think had typically had three or more goals but Palace away only had three or more half the time so if I just had the soccer stats data if I didn’t have the parcel model again again I really wouldn’t know how to interpret that so very much like the Man City Swansea match where man said your home nearly always score I mean nearly always have three or more goals I think it was 88% what Palace I mean while Swansea way rarely have three or more goals so again if I just had the soccerstats data, I would give that a miss but using the poisson model it said no I think you’re gonna get three or more goals you nearly it had a very high probability of three or more so again we’ll see how it goes but today we have 10 euro on all three matches and we’ll compare the two approaches just using the soccer stats information if I just knew that old this is how often the team has three or more goals and I didn’t have the possible model and if I had used the poisson model does it actually add value

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