Peter Webb – Bet Angel – Football trading – Predicting relegation

Peter Webb – Bet Angel – Football trading – Predicting relegation

So at the end of the football season we will know by the time this video comes out who’s likely to be relegated who isn’t but you can actually tell some way before how a team is likely to perform and sort of what direction they’re going to go in and that’s what I’m going to talk about in this video please like and comment on the video below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them in the future if you’re interested in learning to trade successfully in sports then why not visit the bet angel’ Academy where we have more detailed videos so at the end of the season everything’s playing out and we know that Manchester City have won the Premier League but we still don’t know who quite is going to be relegated but if you look back at the video that I produced to the beginning of the season I was saying to you the wage bill more or less correlates to the final league positions that you have within clubs so if we look there was a great graphic the Sky Sports brought up recently if we look at the net spent that teams have made since 2014 I’ll bring up the graphic on the screen somewhere here if you look at that net spend that players that teams have made since 2014 you’ll notice who’s at the top of the list for manchester city they’ve spent nearly half a billion on new players and as a consequence they’ve run away with the league this year number two of the net spenders is Manchester United and they have ended up in second place so while Jose Mourinho is no doubt a good manager they have spent their way to league position number two I wonder if you look at the net spent and you go down towards the bottom you’ll see that we also have Spurs and Liverpool there so they actually haven’t spent much more than they weren’t in player sales and yet they’ve done pretty well so you’ve got to give credit to paja Tino and clop for producing two really good teams who have been very competitive despite not actually spending an awful lot of money on brand new players so that the net spend is interesting because it tells you that balance between what you’ve spent on players come what you’ve sold but ultimately is wage bill that determines that so if you ranked it by wage bill Liverpool Spurs will be much much higher up but nonetheless you can still see that they’ve done a good job when you look at the net spend the balance between transfers in and out but more or less this just reinforces the video that I did at the beginning of the year which basically said if you spend a lot of money you’re going to finish higher in the league so if you want to do that but that’s the way to go but you’ll notice at the bottom of that list is Southampton and they have sold far more players than they have bought so you know shock horror they’ve had a dreadful season what a surprise it seemed to be a surprise to the board but to absolutely nobody else across the entire league so yeah it’s not a surprise to me that they have struggled this year and also I think there’s a bit of confirmation bias in there they had a good year finished high in the league sold loads of players and cashed in on on that success and then they had another good season so they thought well okay you know all of a sudden you know we have a model that works beautifully well and the fact is whether you’re trading in business whatever you’re doing don’t let yourself slip into that mode you have to remain humble with whatever you do and each year treat in isolation because they seemed to think that they’d found some magical way of selling all of your best players and still finishing high up in the league and the fact is long-term that is not sustainable there’s a balance to be had there and flogging of all your best players will lead to a lower league position it’s just inevitable most clubs tend to do that because of debt but so the Hampton chose to do that just to cash in on players so as a consequence you know they’ve suffered as a result and they may still go down if you look at the fixtures that they’ve got coming up there playing Everton this weekend and if you look at Everton’s home form they’ve played really well at home but not so well away and it certain haven’t played particularly well away and so you combine those two and you sort of think that maybe a result is not likely at Everett however when you look at the next match which is Swansea and you look at how they performed against teams within that part of the league so Hampton don’t have a dreadful set of results against those teams and Swansea don’t have a great set of results against those teams away they’re a little bit more mixed there and then of course the final match of the season for the Samson is against City I was rather hoping that city would qualify from Champions League final have and then they would have to rest their team for that last match of the season first of Hampton could find themselves having to win against Manchester City on the last day of the season and if you look at that NetSpend table there are opposite ends of the table in terms of wage in terms of net spend in terms of everything and Manchester City you’ve just wiped the floor this year so not sure if they’re going to pull that off I’ll be at the match and give them a shout to see if they can but really you don’t want to drop down into the championship because the championship is that ultra competitive League very very hard to get out of teams that come out of the Premier League get a parachute payment that they will spend trying to get back up again and then you’ve got teams that want to get into the Premier League for that immense amount of cash that they get that will over spend and spend beyond their means to try and get promoted so it’s a nightmare division to get out of if you’ve got momentum coming from lower leagues and through and up then that’s great because you know you can carry that momentum forward but if you’re trying to get back up after coming down and you don’t have that momentum you want to track the players if you’re a selling club you know the players will only come there if they think they’ve got an opportunity of playing at higher level and so on and so on so yeah it’s it’s gonna be difficult and really I would have preferred so Hampton not to have sold some of these players or to heard a stronger management team and a better manager from most of the season in fact you could tell from South Hamptons results if you look and you group results they had all of their easy home games in the first half of the season so when they didn’t win as many of those as they should have done you knew that they were going to be in trouble because all of the harder home games came at the back end of the season which is exactly when you don’t want them you want the EZ games at the back in a season so if you look at the fixture list very often you can identify teams that are likely to run into trouble so it’s something that’s worth doing and one of the things that haven’t discussed before that I do throughout the year on the on the football leagues as I’ll look at the odds that people are being offered because odds generally are pretty efficient and then I’ll see how teams perform against that and that will allow me to construct a league of over performers and under performance so if you look at teams that are playing at home this reiterates what we had to say about the Everton and Southampton match Everton have performed consistently well above what they should do at home so there’s something about Everton at home that means that they tend to perform particularly well however look it’s the Hampton on that table and you will find that there right at the bottom they significantly underperformed at home and I think that you know they had all of those easy games in inverted commas at the beginning of the season they failed miserably on those and that was the major warning sign that there was going to be a problem so the unfortunate thing is if you look at the away performances over the course of the season you see Sampson a second from bottom there as well so other than being terrible at home they’re pretty terrible away but the funny thing is in relation to the chance that they should have had of winning the match actually Arsenal have performed to the worst over the course of the season away from home but again you can sort of pick up on these trends fairly early on in season and they tend to be persistent and they tend to continue apart from if there’s a change of managers at some point because it tends to be a manager led thing in terms of the style of play the players that they play in the formations and how they’re likely to perform over a period of time so yeah you know as we approach the end of the season you can see that things they pretty much played out the way that you would have expected at the beginning of the season but also when you look at the imagery that I put up in terms of teams that performed above or below their current performance the way that I’ve constructed these is to say the market thinks they have a 50% chance of winning this match at home and in fact they didn’t so it’s adding up all those implied probabilities masking them off against the results and as the season progresses you begin to get a picture of who is or isn’t underperforming that can be pretty beneficial over the course of the year but if you’re looking for relegation candidates you could use a couple of those different things either at the start of the season or as the season progressed to identify which teams are likely to underperform and you know at this stage of time I don’t know so how to avoid relegation or not I’m sort of thinking that it’s 50/50 at this moment in time it all hinges on that Swansea match if the Hampton beat Swansea or Swansea beats the Hampton then the team that wins it’s probably safe if they both draw anything it could happen in that little pile of fixtures at the bottom of the league so yeah it’s an interesting year but ultimately quite predictable a couple of little bit about performers and like I said in the video watch it if you haven’t seen it before I’ll link it to it in the end screen now you always tend to get a few performers in that middle grouping that tends to do well and I think the unusual thing about this season so far is we don’t have any of the promoted teams getting immediately relegated and not yet anyway there’s still opportunity for that to happen but yeah football dominated by money and that tends to translate into performances but even when the season is underway you’ll begin to pick up on patterns and that was fairly clear for me as I Sampson found fairly early on in the season and hopefully you can relate to some of that I hope your team stays up or gets promoted whichever division that you’re in and I’m looking forward now to the World Cup because the World Cup is going to be huge this year loads of liquidity play of opportunity and probably a few missed penalties for England if everything runs to form anyhow hope that was useful for you you

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